Sunday, May 31, 2009

The Monty Hall Trap

Suppose that Monty Hall (on TV's Let's Make a Deal) asks you to choose between three doors: #1, #2, and #3. Behind a random door is a new Rolls Royce. Behind each of the other two doors is a goat. Let's assume that you would prefer a Rolls Royce to a goat. You choose a door. Now, Monty, who knows which door hides the Rolls Royce, shows you a goat behind one of the two doors that you did not choose. He then gives you the opportunity to change your choice. Assume that Monty always does this, regardless of your guess. Should you change your choice?

2 comments:

  1. FINE I WILL POST MY ANSWER CUZ IT IS SO BRILLIANT. I wouldn't change my choice because my first instinct is always right. HAPPY NOW WUT IS THE ANSWER?
    P.s. when you wrote keep flushing.. I didn't keep reading so yes I will keep flushing the toilet :)

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